Retail Container Traffic Forecasted to Grow 25 Percent in First Half of 2010
Import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports will be a full 25 percent higher during the first half of 2010 compared with the same period a year ago, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
U.S. ports handled 1.09 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units in December, the latest month for which actual numbers are available. That was unchanged from November but up 2.6 percent from December 2008 to break a 28-month streak during which monthly totals were lower than the same month the year before. One TEUs is one 20-foot cargo container or its equivalent.
January was estimated at 1.19 million TEUs, a 17 percent increase over January 2009, and February, traditionally the slowest month of the year, is forecast at 1.1 million TEU, up 30 percent from the previous year. March is forecast at 1.18 million TEUs, up 23 percent as retailers begin to stock up for spring and summer, April at 1.25 million TEUs, up 27 percent, May at 1.3 million TEU, up 26 percent, and June at 1.38 million TEU, up 36 percent.
Those monthly numbers would put the first half of 2010 at 7.4 million TEUs, up 25 percent from last year’s 5.9 million TEUs.
With numbers from December now final, 2009 ended with a total volume of 12.7 million TEU, down 17 percent from 2008’s 15.2 million TEUs and the lowest since the 12.5 million TEUs reported in 2003.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett disagreed with economists who fear that the economy is in the middle of a W-shaped recovery where another dip could follow current signs of an upturn.
Retail Container Traffic to be Up 16 Percent in September
Import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports is expected to be up 16 percent in September over the same month last year, but 2010 has already hit its peak and numbers will decline through the remainder of the year, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
“Retailers have stocked up early on much of their holiday merchandise in order to avoid some of the supply chain disruptions seen earlier in the year,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Cargo is still coming in, but the key question for sales will be what happens with employment and other factors that affect consumer confidence this fall. Retailers are hoping they’ve hit the right balance of supply and demand.”
U.S. ports handled 1.38 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units in July, the latest month for which actual numbers are available. That was up 5 percent from June and 25 percent from July 2009. It was the eighth month in a row to show a year-over-year improvement after December broke a 28-month streak of year-over-year declines. One TEUs is one 20-foot cargo container or its equivalent.
August was estimated at 1.35 million TEUs, a 17 percent increase over last year. September is forecast at 1.32 million TEUs, up 16 percent from last year; October at 1.3 million TEUs, up 9 percent; November at 1.2 million TEUs, up 11 percent; and December at 1.11 million TEUs, up 2 percent. January 2011 is forecast at 1.06 million TEUs, down 2 percent from January 2010.
The first half of 2010 was estimated at 6.9 million TEUs, up 17 percent from the same period last year. The full year is forecast at 14.5 million TEUs, which would be up 15 percent from the 12.7 million TEUs in 2009, which was the lowest since the 12.5 million TEUs reported in 2003. The 2010 number remains below the 15.2 million TEUs seen in 2008 and the peak of 16.5 million TEUs seen in 2007.
While October is the traditional peak month of the annual shipping season as retailers bring in merchandise for the holiday season, July’s figures appear likely to stand as the peak for 2010. The shift was mostly due to backlogs built up due to the lack of shipping capacity earlier in the year after ship owners took vessels out of service during the recession.