• Energy Information Agency Releases Short-Term Energy Outlook

Energy Information Agency Releases Short-Term Energy Outlook

Monday September 20, 2010

These projections reflect updated expectations for economic activity, with forecasted U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.8 percent in 2010 and 2.3 percent in 2011, down from the previous Outlook’s growth projections of 3.1 and 2.7 percent for 2010 and 2011, respectively. The 2011 world oil-consumption-weighted real GDP growth rate is also lowered, to 3.3 percent from the 3.6 percent level in last month’s Outlook.
 
EIA expects that regular-grade motor gasoline retail prices, which averaged $2.35 per gallon last year, will average $2.69 per gallon over the second half of 2010, down 7 cents per gallon from the average for the first half of the year. In 2011, higher projected crude oil prices combined with strengthening refiner margins are expected to boost annual average motor gasoline prices to $2.90 per gallon.
 
On-highway diesel fuel retail prices, which averaged $2.46 per gallon in 2009, average $2.93 per gallon in 2010 and $3.10 in 2011 in this forecast. Refining margins, which have been at their lowest levels since 2003, are projected to average about $2 per barrel higher next year because of growing global product demand and shutdowns of excess global refining capacity.
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